peak oil

by Adam Porter

Predicting the end of the age of oil can be a sticky business. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo), a collection of industry figures, politicians and academics, this week held its annual meeting at the Gulbenkian Museum in Lisbon.

From quiet beginnings three years ago, Aspo is no longer just "bubbling under" in being taken seriously. Delegates had to squeeze past no fewer than 10 documentary crews, a nest of television cameras and a phalanx of reporters just to grab their seat in the packed auditorium.

by Trevor Sykes

The world's oil production may be about to reach its peak - forever. Such apocalyptic prophecies often surface in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter. What is unusual is that this time the doomsday scenario has gained serious credibility among respected analysts and commentators.

So serious that a network of scientists affiliated with European institutions and universities has formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo) with a mandate "to determine the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world's production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints".

Aspo's current best guess, shown in the accompanying graph, is that oil production will peak in 2008. Other analysts reckon the peak will be in about 10 years, but it's hard to find many experts who do not agree that world oil supply is going into decline some time soon.